Social Data Dashboard

Below are visualizations representing data that reflect social and demographic trends in Missoula County. These visualizations are updated regularly with the most recent data available. Depending on the sources, some data may be refreshed monthly or quarterly. Some may update annually, with a year or more of lag. Under the visualizations, you can find explanatory text that adds context to the data presented here. Click the double-arrow icon in the lower-right corner of the visualizations for a full-sized view.

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Population Change in Missoula County

The Impact of Net Migration on Missoula County Population Change

Population changes from 2010 to about 2014 was characterized by natural population increases, more births than deaths, and net in-migration, more people moving in than leaving. Net in-migration, beginning in 2015, dominated population change. Missoula’s declining natural population change partially reflects the decline in birth rates and the relatively large aging population. In 2020 and 2021, natural change has been small or negative, reflecting long-term country-wide trends and the increased mortality associated with COVID-19.

Changes in Median Income

The estimated household median income from all sources in Missoula County continues to increase modestly along with that of the state and the nation. From 2020 to 2021, household income growth increased roughly along with the U.S. but slower than Montana’s. In 2021 the median-earning household in Missoula County made about $4,000 less than the median-earning U.S. household and about $2,300 more than the median-earning Montana household.

Poverty And Homelessness Rates

Missoula Coordinated Entry System

This report has replaced the annual homeless count with data from Missoula Coordinated Entry System (MCES) (slide 15). This data is much more accurate and real time. It shows 592 people homeless in December of 2021, compared to 625 in December of 2020. The data does indicate a slight increasing trend noted by the dashed trend line.

Even with increasing median income and declining poverty rates, 49.2 percent of Missoula County renters and 24 percent of Missoula County homeowners are “cost-burdened,” meaning they pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing. These figures are similar to those of the U.S. at large, where 49.6 percent of renters and 22.5 percent of homeowners are cost burdened.

For the first time, Missoula Housing Authority vouchers were unable to support increasing rents, so the ability of families to attain homes with vouchers dropped. The success rate of voucher families had been historically in the mid to high 70% range; in 2021 that success rate dropped to 58%. MHA has been able to get special waivers from HUD to increase their payments.

Housing Attainability/Affordability

Housing attainability across most price points continues to be a challenge. Mortgage rates have effectively doubled from year-end 2021 and the continued increase in median home prices have strained the ability of buyers with a median family income to purchase a home.

When buying a median-priced home for $520,000, at an interest rate of 6.625 percent on a 30-year conventional mortgage and a down payment of 5 percent, the income needed to be at 30% of the estimated mortgage payment is $160,897 per year. If you overlay this data point with the Census Median Family income projection of $80,200 for 2022, the buyer of this scenario would be short approximately $80,697 in annual gross income. This roughly translates into a Housing Affordability Index (HAI) of 50 (referenced in page 9 of the visualization above).

In the scenario where the borrower has a 20% down payment, the income needed for the same purchase was $133,674, still $53,474 short with an HAI of 60.

Click here to view HAI (Housing Affordability Index) through Q4 of 2022.

Social Data Dashboard

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